638
FXUS65 KABQ 220506 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1006 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1003 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
- Warming trend continues areawide the next several days. Record
high temperatures will be challenged in western and northern NM
on Monday and Tuesday.
- Breezy northwest winds will create elevated fire weather
conditions in the central highlands each afternoon Sunday
through Wednesday.
- There is a moderate chance of light mountain snow and valley
rain next weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
The bitterly cold temperatures in eastern NM have finally come to an
end and temperatures areawide will continue to warm through the
early part of next week. Outside breezy west to northwest winds in
the highlands east of the central mountain chain each afternoon,
tranquil weather will prevail the next several days. The seasonably
warm temperatures will be accompanied by dry conditions that will
persist through at least the middle of next week. There is a
moderate chance that light mountain snow and valley rain return next
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
A rather quiet weather pattern will prevail thru the short term
period despite the remnants of a weak H5 upper low crossing the
state tonight and tomorrow. The main recent weather impacts from
bitter cold across the eastern plains has come to an end. The
modified Arctic airmass is and will continue to modify tonight
before being shunted eastward into TX Saturday. High temperatures
thru the eastern plains warm 15F to 20F relative to today to within
a few degrees of normal for late February. Overall, highs will range
from the 30s/40s in the mountains to 50s in lower elevation areas.
The Albuquerque metro will flirt with 60F. Overnight valley
temperature inversions will be favored across northern and central
NM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
The warming trend continues into early next week as dry northwest
flow continues over the area. Both Sunday and Monday will be breezy
in the typical windy highlands east of the central mountain chain
thanks to a weak dry shortwave moving through, but it will be
otherwise quiet and pleasant. Despite numerous record lows being
broken earlier this week, it will be record highs on the chopping
block early to mid-next week. 500 mb heights will rise above the
90th percentile areawide during the second "false spring."
Temperatures may drop a tad in the eastern plains on Tuesday if a
weak backdoor front is able to squeak through, but there is high
confidence that the above normal temperatures will prevail
regardless. The sub-tropical jet will move overhead on
Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing a westerly breeze to most areas, which
will turn around to the northwest on Wednesday as a subtle, dry
cold front crosses the area. This will drop temps 5-10 degrees
across the region, but highs will remain above seasonal averages.
Models have consistently shown a closed Low ejecting inland into the
desert southwest late week into the weekend, but continue to differ
on the timing and trajectory of this feature. There is a moderate
chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers Friday through the
weekend, but given how weak this feature looks, anything more than
minor impacts appears very unlikely.
Fortunately, there is a reason to be optimistic about moisture
beyond the 7 day period. There is high confidence (>80% chance)
that the Pacific North- American Index (PNA) will become negative
during the first week of March, meaning that anomalous troughing
will dominate over the western CONUS. This greatly increases the
chance of Pacific moisture reaching New Mexico, with the northern
half of the state being favored for precipitation during this
period. For reference, the PNA has not turned negative since mid-
November when a major winter storm impacted the region. While this
pattern change does not mean we will get another major winter
storm, it at least increases the chance of precious snowfall that
has been hard to come by this winter.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR will persist the next 24 hrs at all terminals. An elongated
shortwave trough axis will continue progressing eastward across
NM thru Saturday with only mid and high level cloud cover. High
level turbulence is likely to persist within the trough as it
drifts eastward.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025
Temperatures steadily warm thru Tuesday as the modified Arctic
airmass across eastern NM modifies and gets shunted eastward out of
NM tonight thru Saturday. Light prevailing westerly winds also
steadily increase each day allowing for the return of elevated fire
weather conditions. Localized and short-lived critical fire weather
will be possible early next week thru parts of the central
highlands.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 24 53 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 11 49 13 54 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 19 51 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 13 55 15 62 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 23 53 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 14 56 16 63 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 22 54 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 28 55 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 26 53 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 16 61 15 66 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 21 64 21 71 / 0 5 0 0
Chama........................... 13 45 15 51 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 27 51 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 23 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 22 47 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 17 40 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 12 45 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 16 51 18 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 18 52 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 20 58 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 27 51 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 24 55 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 56 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 30 58 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 23 60 22 66 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 59 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 18 61 18 68 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 26 60 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 18 60 17 67 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 28 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 20 60 19 67 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 30 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 29 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 29 62 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 28 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 21 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 13 56 18 62 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 20 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 20 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 22 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 27 57 30 64 / 0 5 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 25 52 29 59 / 0 10 0 0
Capulin......................... 19 51 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 16 55 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 15 56 20 65 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 17 54 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 22 56 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 18 52 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 20 60 24 68 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 18 58 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 17 59 23 68 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 20 54 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 19 54 26 69 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 17 55 23 70 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 21 54 26 76 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 20 55 31 71 / 0 5 0 0
Elk............................. 22 56 30 70 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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